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In
few days from now election commission will
declare the results of 402 assembly seats of
Uttar Pradesh. After tireless campaigning
session in the heat and dust of Uttar Pradesh
our honorable netaji's will try to catch up with
all the rest in their air conditioned bedroom
and living room which they sacrificed all theses
weeks; but the irony is- till the time results
are not declared they cannot relax in peace even
if they plan to do so deep inside the quietness
of countryside. The apprehension and anxiety of
results along with all those thousand
butterflies in the belly will not allow them to
enjoy the serenity of atmosphere.
Results will come but which party will form the
government is a matter of intense speculation.
Will the cycle of Samajwadi Party make a come
back or the giant Haathi of Bahujan Samaj will
trample the cycle and all others in its Way?
Nothing can be said like a surety of death.
But one wild guess with complete surety which
any political novice (those who follow
elections) can make is that none of the four
major political parties namely; Samajwad,
Bahujan Samaj, BJP and Congress can form the
government on its own. Please keep in mind we
are into the age of coalition government, not
only at the center but in states as well.
In the rough and tumble political world of UP
once again jod-tod will be on its summit. All
the four major parties want to have a share in
the pie (formation of government) and this
ambition gives way to intense manipulation,
massive horse trading and great political
maneuverings. Since every numbers matters
therefore whoever will grasp the hold of
independent MLA’s will consider it a prize
possession. In this age of fractured mandate
they are much sought after allies especially in
regional politics.
To reach the magic number of 202 every
permutation and combination of possible alliance
will be worked out. Those who so far have been
untouchables for others will start hugging each
other. No alliance can be ruled out except that
of BJP and Congress. Like there can be no
alliance between Democrats and Republicans in US
or Labour and Conservative in UK, same way it
can't be in India as well. And what BJP is to
Congress-Samajwadi is to BS.
BSP earlier had the support of Congress and with
BJP it has in the past formed the government (it
didn’t last long, by the way). Though Samajwadi
call itself a secular party and it has huge
support of Muslim voters but that again will not
deter the socialist and secularist Mulayam Singh
from accepting the support of communalist and
capitalist BJP - in case the need arise.
Congress the party which literally swept every
single seat of UP few years back (after the
assassination of Indira Gandhi) since then is
struggling hard to make a mark in UP politics.
The political dynamics of UP will force Congress
party to extend its support to Behen Mayawati
because it doesn't have much of option at its
end. For obvious reasons BJP is a strict no-no
and Samajwadi party is the bete niore of
Congress.
The daughter of dalit (read lower caste) who all
her life carried the stigma of being lower caste
and untouchable (she will not curse the Indian
caste system though) has now become a
narcissist. She now celebrates her birth day
bash with a bang (Oh, sorry its not her but the
party workers) Installs her life size statute
assuming herself to be bigger then Ambedkar;
well narcissism does creep when one have such a
massive support of entire Bahujan Samaj.
Courtesy caste system Mayawati is much sought
after Queen in the playground of politics and
corridors of power because she will be much
closer to the magic number 202.Those who support
her will become part of the government and rest
will sit in opposition till the next election-in
the meantime they will keep planning and
plotting to topple the government.
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